The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook on May 21, forecasting a below-normal season. NOAA assigns a 55 percent chance of below-normal activity, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season, and just a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season. Scientists expect between eight and fourteen named storms, of which three to six could become hurricanes and one to three could reach major hurricane strength at Category 3 or higher.
The quieter outlook is driven largely by the anticipated development of El Nino, a warming of Pacific Ocean waters that increases wind shear over the Atlantic and makes it harder for storms to organize and intensify. Ocean temperatures are expected to remain slightly above average, which could offset some of that suppression.
For comparison, the 2025 Atlantic season produced thirteen named storms, five hurricanes, and four major hurricanes, several of which forced itinerary changes across multiple cruise lines including MSC and Carnival. A typical season averages fourteen named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
Cruise Hive notes that even a lighter season can produce individual storms that disrupt itineraries, as cruise lines will always reroute ships to protect guest and crew safety. NOAA's National Weather Service Director acknowledged that a single significant storm can still define a season, regardless of the overall forecast.